FPL Vault
A series of frameworks for thinking about FPL differently. Each piece coins a concept, backs it with data, and changes how you approach one part of the game.
Why holding transfers is worth more than you think — and why holding too many costs you.
Every FPL manager is either an investor or a trader. Over 38 gameweeks, the investor wins.
The crowd is right about quality and wrong about timing. The edge is knowing when.
The managers who finish top 1k don't have the biggest weeks. They have the fewest bad ones.
Luck is real, symmetrical, and smaller than most managers think. Here's the data.
Adam Smith's invisible hand applied to FPL ownership. Five live market signals updated each gameweek.
A hit in GW1 and a hit in GW37 are not the same decision. Context changes the threshold.
In finance a pound today beats a pound tomorrow. In FPL it is the opposite.
Could a manager who makes every positive-EV transfer win FPL? The maths says almost.
The series manifesto. Five emotional traps, one discipline paradox, and a question about why we play.